CS855 - Futuring and Innovation

I agree, Terry. My Myspace sites keep expiring due...

2008-09-16T03:13:00.000-07:00

I agree, Terry. My Myspace sites keep expiring due to disuse and when I am unable to renew them, I feel artificially relieved that sites bearing my name are no longer available. *grins*

I've used Netmeeting since 1997 when I used it to collaborate with gamers and designers around the country. We also used it during our artificial intelligence project to conduct remote simulations and testing while the team observed the results via application sharing.

While NetMeeting exists on most systems that run Windows under the client.exe file name, it may not be considered Web 2.0 because it does not run online or use your browser.

Then again, I haven't used it in a couple of years and anything is possible, eh? *grins* Still it is one of the handiest free applications and allows help desk support folks to share applications and with permission, assume remote control of a system.

Yes, Bandit, developing the Panama Canal was one s...

2008-09-16T03:03:00.000-07:00

Yes, Bandit, developing the Panama Canal was one such example. They had funding and nationalistic zeal for the project when the French lost thousands to disease and poor working conditions.

Throwing people and money at a problem was insufficient. They had built their living quarters with lovely fountains that served as a home for disease carrying mosquitos.

Someone observed that they made progress when they focused on human resources issues and stopped killing the workforce with good intentions.

The PBS special entitled "A Man, A Plan, A Canal, Panama" illustrates that technological innovations, such as the movable railway track, and better working conditions combined with an understanding of the mosquito helped to address some fundamental obstacles to success.

The problem was simplified to the need to move over 50 miles of dirt, and adding a project manager with railway experienced addressed some of the problems.

Even with these accomplishments, another analogy of the engineering problem reminded me of building a sand castle. The sloping walls tend to continue to fall into the trough, and the Panama Canal was reported to require continual maintenance to address it.

By the way, the title of this rather wonderful PBS show is a palindrome, and similar to the word radar, is spelled the same, forwards and backwards.

laughs I bought one of his DVDs nearly a year ag...

2008-09-16T02:53:00.000-07:00

*laughs* I bought one of his DVDs nearly a year ago, but have yet to have time to watch it.

This was my first look at his show and it is creative. *smiles*

During one of our Second Life classes, we asked questions about creativity and innovation, trying to separate our definitions of them and identify some myths (as described in the literature).

We made a trivia game out of it and each student took a stand as we discussed our viewpoints and what other scholars have found during their research.

I must confess that I enjoyed those weekly class meetings and interactions immensely and will miss them. *smiles*

Wow, the sound quality is great. It gained a littl...

2008-09-16T02:43:00.000-07:00

Wow, the sound quality is great. It gained a little bit of noise later, but I also noticed that my Internet connection was dismally slow after 3:30 a.m.

Hmm, it may be a sign. Fun podcast! *grins*

Love how they note (at the link you provided) that...

2008-09-16T02:40:00.000-07:00

Love how they note (at the link you provided) that if you want to think differently than Congress, do it somewhere other than in Washington, D.C.

After working on Capitol Hill for a few years, I quite agree with these sentiments.

Looks great. reads the review

As soon as...

2008-09-16T02:34:00.000-07:00

Looks great. *reads the review*

As soon as the workload subsides, I'll try Furl. *grins*

10-15 years ago, I read more about the risks and e...

2008-09-16T02:31:00.000-07:00

10-15 years ago, I read more about the risks and ethical implications of nanotechnology than I hear at National Physics Laboratory and Nanotechnology presentations. Greater attention is devoted to announcing the research activities and accomplishments.

Jason, the notion of keeping a copy in reserve is just too funny (and too practical) for words.

Our level of awareness and reflections on our existence makes us feel separate from other molecular compounds.

In some of my classes, we analyze the teleporter accomplishments and identify the systems engineering methods needed to achieve teleportation.

This naturally leads to a discussion of the same issues that we are reviewing in these innovation predictions and wonder whether our ability to develop a technology outweighs social responsibility, ethics and our value systems.

One prevalent theme in science fiction is the scientist's quest for knowledge and scientific discovery and how it far outweighs any thought of civil responsibility and safety.

Shades of the technology envisioned in Terminator,...

2008-09-16T02:13:00.000-07:00

Shades of the technology envisioned in Terminator, only with a human in control, eh? *smiles*

Love the slideshow and visuals woven into it, Terry.

It's hard to believe we're just a collection of mo...

2008-09-07T16:56:00.000-07:00

It's hard to believe we're just a collection of molecules... and then there's the fact that we don't know what we don't know.

>>In other words, do you think a molecular-b...

2008-09-05T18:30:00.000-07:00

>>In other words, do you think a molecular-based "print" of yourself would retain all your memories and personal charactersics?

No reason that it shouldn't. We're just chemicals after all. Hey that way you could keep a spare soul around if you ever had to sell yours!

t news article that researchers are using genetica...

2008-09-03T07:22:00.000-07:00

t news article that researchers are using genetically modified virus to construct a connection matrix for nano tubes to be used for energy storage. If the technology works the possibility of prostetics with integrated power becomes more real.
The scary part is an accidental misstep in the research process may generate potential harmful viruses, matrices, nano tube material or worse.

I agree, with the possibility of extreme profit an...

2008-08-24T13:23:00.000-07:00

I agree, with the possibility of extreme profit and financial backing, the potential for any pediction to be successful will be much higher. I also agree with Steve's comment that technological challenges are somewhat unique in that engineers work them as they would any other problem.

Are there many examples that technical predictions were unsuccessful when financial backing was abundent and focus on the predictin was high?

I think you are right about the fact that the cost...

2008-08-21T17:49:00.000-07:00

I think you are right about the fact that the cost of innovation is not that high for some of the technology improvements and if someone sees a market, it's nto that hard to make it happen.

Or could it simply be that we are engineers? We p...

2008-08-13T21:16:00.000-07:00

Or could it simply be that we are engineers? We possess the ability to solve almost any technological problem; therefore, if we treat our predictions as technological challenges, we will simply build the solution and prove the prediction correct. Other people don’t have that option, only those involved in the creation of high tech innovation.

Do you believe that the preventive measures that s...

2008-08-05T18:30:00.000-07:00

Do you believe that the preventive measures that some of the world's companies performed was the reason why we did not experience the catastrophic crisis predicted (i.e. "the end of the world as we know it")?

There were obviously cases where preventive measures avoided some problems, similar to your example. But I agree with many other people who believe that the Y2K crisis was horribly exaggerated. For example, Larry Seltzer (eWeek.com security center editor) made the following comments in his article "Some Perspective 5 Years After Y2k":

"You certainly couldn't justify all the money spent on the straightforward merits. Did all that remediation actually solve serious Y2K problems? If it did, why didnt the problems manifest themselves in serious ways in the unremediated third world? Either the problems were less frequent or less malignant than advertised. In either case, some famous consultants misled their clients."

"What we all should have argued for at the time was perspective: A focus on worst-case planning is usually unwarranted. Those who argue for it hysterically and who belittle those who oppose them arent serving anyones interests well. Ironically it also taught us the exact opposite lesson that the extremists were telling: Far from being vulnerable because of their interconnectedness, our systems are robust because of their redundancy and interconnectedness."

Reference: http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Security/Some-Perspective-5-Years-After-Y2K/

In many respects the prediction failed because we ...

2008-08-04T10:20:00.000-07:00

In many respects the prediction failed because we had time to fix the perceived problem. I remember we had 10 people working 40 hours a week to update the existing computer code for our applications, so we would not have to Y2K event. There were many patches released for the individual workstation to fix any code not Y2K compliant. In essence a lot of work went into this to make it a non-event.

Yes, I agree that the predictions led some compani...

2008-07-31T20:11:00.000-07:00

Yes, I agree that the predictions led some companies to perform some work that avoided some problems, but this was the exception not the norm. In many cases, the roll-over was just not an issue.

Obviously the world's legacy software base wasn't rewritten, and the predicted doomsday didn't occur -- despite the fact that by 2000 the world was highly dependent on computer systems.

Terry

I can agree that the whole Y2k was a ...

2008-07-31T16:50:00.000-07:00

Terry

I can agree that the whole Y2k was a bust as I too was on call and I predicted that there would be no major impact to the systems that I was supporting. But my prediction was based upon the woork that was accomplished in the year prior to the roll over. I feee htat htis is a major contributo as to why there were no impacts. So the futurists that predicted there would be problem in fact prompted its fix so the prediction did hae some merit.

Excellent points Terry, the Y2K saga was more of a...

2008-07-31T08:22:00.000-07:00

Excellent points Terry, the Y2K saga was more of a precaution mixed a healthy dose of fear to get people (businesses/organizations) to get their act together. While were were some real concerns i.e. time issues,potential communications miss-match etc., the type of data/information that was necessary to understand the magnitude of the the problem in the first place. Albeit, it is good to embrace well accepted business practices, its unfortunate when predictions create the types of stresses that as Y2K did.

Regards,

Howard.

Good questions. There did seem to be an element of...

2008-07-31T00:36:00.000-07:00

Good questions. There did seem to be an element of market-driven, self-fulfilling prophecy... but there were plenty of computer experrts that predicted a disaster.

I don't think the predictions actually prevented the failures, since I don't think the entire world of software was rewritten. In fact, I know many companies just held their breath (instead of making major investments in rewrites of legacy code). I think it was just a bad prediction.

This is an insightful post on a topic I had consid...

2008-07-30T17:57:00.000-07:00

This is an insightful post on a topic I had considered discussing as well.
My problem was that I couldn't decide whether this qualified as a failed prediction or not. The doom and gloom of Y2K was never seen, but was that a result of bad predictions, or of the billions of dollars poured into preventing the catastrophe? Does it still count as a failed prediction if we proactively act to prevent it? If so, did our preventative actions really mitigate it, or would it not have occurred in any event?
Just thinking out loud here....

Thanks for the links. I think the most interesting...

2008-07-29T21:10:00.000-07:00

Thanks for the links. I think the most interesting possibilities have to do with brain-computer interfaces... or the embedded sensors. That's where the boundaries between human and machine start to blur.

Terry,
I really like how you linked us all on y...

2008-07-27T15:24:00.000-07:00

Terry,
I really like how you linked us all on your blogg. It really saves time. I will have to figure out how to do it too. LoL

Howard.

The July 25, 2008 issue of ACM TechNews has many articles on the combining of human and computer intelligence. Sharon Gaudin's Intel: Human and Computer Intelligence will Merge in 40 Years article, predictions include increased reality in virtual worlds while robots will become companions instead of remaining as machines.